Bowl Prevew: Capital One Bowl

Capital One Bowl
Citrus Bowl, Orlando
Michigan State vs. Georgia
Date: Jan. 1
Time: 1 p.m.
TV: ABC
Line: Georgia –7.5

About Michigan State: The Spartans are always so cute. They play hard against good teams and think they’re relevant. Hey, that Javon Ringer is something. The rest of the team? Uh, that Javon Ringer sure is somethin’!

Intangibles:
Bobby Williams not coaching: +5
John L. Smith not coaching: +3
Blake Ezor: +2
T.J. Duckett to beat UM with no time on clock: hahahaha +4

About Georgia: After whipping up on a hilariously-poor Hawaii team in last year’s Sugar Bowl, the ‘Dawgs entered 2008 ranked No. 1. They proceeded to prove exactly how misguided that notion was by getting hammered at home by Bama and giving up 900 rushing yards to Georgia Tech to finish the season. Congrats on your national title, UGA!

Intangibles:
Savannah; +4
Rest of Georgia: -3
REM before 1995: +3
REM after 1995: -6

Impact Player: UGA quarterback Matthew Stafford will probably be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft if he comes out, just based on talent. Based on production and consistency he might be the first pick of the Arena League. Kid’s gotta gun, but if he’s scattershot, the Spartans have a chance.

Bowl slogan: “Steve Spurrier would kill to get to this bowl game now.”

Little known fact: MSU quarterback Brian Hoyer is even more inconsistent than Stafford.

Watchability (1-5): 4

The Pick: Georgia 31, Michigan State 27

Picks of the Week

Damn the ACC. Each week is so unpredictable. After saying on our podcast this week that I would never pick another ACC game, I'm sort of breaking that rule already. What I actually meant was I wouldn't try to pick a winner when two ACC teams play. So I am willing to take a shot on the Brain Bowl of Vandy and Duke this week. So here are my picks for this week (can I get a little luck?):

Vanderbilt (-10) over Duke
I really want to take Duke here. David Cutcliffe's heart is in the SEC and he knows Vandy should be a victory. Both of these schools are known more for basketball and brains, but each has been impressive at times this season. It's a non-conference game, but for Duke this could mean bowl eligibility. I just can't get past the talent aspect. I think Bobby Johnson's group is more talented and will win at home.
Pick: Vanderbilt 24, Duke 10

Minnesota (+1.5) over Purdue
Joe Tiller says his Boilermakers are ripping at the seams, but I don't agree. Players are sniping at each other and the Tiller's swan song has been disappointing. Purdue QB Curtis Painter is overmatched, and Minnesota's defense got healthy during a bye week. Look for Coach Tim Brewster to have the Gophers ready to play and avoid any letdown as they look to go 7-1 and end any legitimate hopes of Purdue getting to a bowl game this year.
Pick: Minnesota 30, Purdue 21

Michigan State (-4) over Michigan
This should be a safe pick, but when you look at the facts I'm not so sure. The Spartans were embarrassed last week by Ohio State and looked dejected, and they are riding a six-game losing skid against the Wolverines. The difference this time around is that Rich Rodriguez' offense is spiraling out of control and is among the worst in the nation. Javon Ringer will run wild Saturday and lead Mark Dantonio's group to an easy win at Michigan Stadium.
Pick: Michigan 38, Michigan 14

South Florida (-3.5) over Louisville
This could be one heckuva game. I don't see how there won't be a lot of points scored at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium as the Big East's top two offenses clash. Louisville is 0-1 in conference play and this game is crucial to remaining a legitimate contender. The same could be said for the Bulls, who are 1-1. This game will be decided by with QB plays the best. Will it be USF's Matt Grothe or Louisville's Hunter Cantwell? I don't really like either, but Grothe is gutsy.
Pick: South Florida 45, Louisville 40

Upset of the Week Ohio State (-1.5) over Penn State
This is a stretch for an upset, but if the oddsmakers say it is then I will too. I haven't done too well picking against the Nittany Lions this year, but I have my reasons for this one other than PSU is overrated. The big one is Beanie Wells. He's a big-game player and I think he wants to prove something in this nationally televised night game on Saturday. I also believe the crowd wills OSU to this victory. They'll be loud, inebriated and obnoxious. Somewhat similar to a PSU crowd in Beaver Stadium.
Pick: Ohio State 24, Penn State 21

Last Week: 2-3
Season: 12-13

Saturday early game notes

As I was at the Ohio State game, I missed some of the early games, but here's some thoughts:

- Why is Urban Meyer playing Tim Tebow up by 24 points with 3 minutes left in the Tennessee game? This is utter stupidity and arrogance. They're lucky UT had packed up its bags midway through the second quarter or somebody is going to take a cheap shot at Tebow. And while I don't think Tebow deserves it, I'm starting to wonder if UF does.

- Javon Ringer had another huge day for Michigan State with 201 yards in the win over Notre Dame. Which is great until you realize it was on 39 carries. Well, sure, that's not that bad except it comes after last week's 43 FREAKING CARRIES. Mark D'Antonio is going to Mike Hart this kid into the ground. Ringer is nails, but that's a lot of carries for anybody much less a small back.

- Terrelle Pryor is now the unquestioned starter for Ohio State and looked pretty decent against a Troy team that's better than people think. the Buckeyes still have problems, though, starting with a shocking lack of playing speed. They just don't seem excited about playing football.

- Will Pitt's last-minute win over Iowa spark the Panthers to become the team people thought they would be this year?

- Boise State has a freshman quarterback who threw for nearly 400 yards AT Oregon. Watch out for the Broncos who play nobody until they face Fresno State at the end of the year.

Observations from Saturday's games (Sept. 20)

Game watching was even more sporadic today as my daughter decided at 31 months she doesn't need a nap in the afternoon (but I do). Still, I managed to watch much of the Pitt-Iowa, Florida-Tennessee and East Carolina-N.C. State games (and am currently watching Auburn-LSU, while flipping over to Georgia-Arizona State). Like every Saturday evening, here are some interesting observations I made (sorry it's later than expected, but when an old friend calls you stop what you're doing to talk ... great hearing from you Randy).

1. Will Todd Boeckman see the field again at Ohio State? Yes, but not too much. Many of the Buckeye faithful put most of the blame for OSU's big-game difficulties, including last week's humiliating 35-3 loss to USC on Boeckman. On Saturday, when the game began against Troy Coach Jim Tressel started heralded freshman Terrelle Pryor. He proceeded to complete 10-of-16 passes for 139 yards and four scores. Umm, Todd. I'd get the clipboard and enjoy the rest of your senior season.

2. How many more weeks until Tennessee's Phil Fulmer announces his retirement? I'm guessing right before the Vols play Kentucky in the season finale. But it could come earlier if the embarrassing losses continue to mount. Falling to UCLA in the opener was disappointing, but the Rocky Toppers we're willing to chalk it up to bad luck and the West Coast. Lose to 30-6 at home and Rocky Top becomes Rocky Chop. Don't fret Phil. You just face Auburn on the road next Saturday.

3. Is the Heisman race already over? Not yet, but I believe it is just a three-man race. All due respect to Missouri's Chase Daniel, I think Florida's Tim Tebow, USC's Mark Sanchez and Missouri's Jeremy Maclin are going to finish 1-3 in the final balloting. The darkhorse is probably Maclin, but he's the most talented. Watch him pull down Daniel's passes and then outrun everyone else on the field and you realize he's the most exciting receiver since Pitt's Larry Fitzgerald.

4. Is Michigan State's Javon Ringer the nation's best running back? Not a fair question, but man he's impressive. In Saturday's win against Notre Dame he rushed for more than 200 yards and two scores in a pretty easy 23-7 win. He doesn't get the respect of say Georgia's Knowshawn Moreno, Pitt's LeSean McCoy or Ohio State's Beanie Wells. But watch him run and you'll see he resembles a stronger Tony Dorsett.

5. Will Ball State crash the BCS party? Probably not, but after the Cardinals 42-20 victory at Indiana the Mid-American Conference team could be 13-0 after winning the conference championship game. Led by athletic quarterback Nate Davis, Ball State should be 10-0 when it faces the season's final two challenges in Central Michigan and Western Michigan. I'm keeping an eye on this team the rest of the way.

6. How overrated is the Pac-10? If last week wasn't bad enough, the conference was flipped upside down again when Oregon lost at home to Boise State. It really is USC and everyone else.

7. How tough is the SEC? To truly understand all you had to do was watch LSU at Auburn. The speed. The hits. The fans. I'm actually jealous that my sister and brother-in-law live in Tuscaloosa. I'd love to go to more of these games.

8. When will everyone realize that Florida State is not an elite program any longer? Three consecutive losses to Wake Forest is all you need to know.

9. Is West Virginia in trouble when it faces Marshall? Yes. The Herd are playing better this year and are 3-1 following a good road win at Southern Miss. Pat White is still great, but this team is one bad series from turning on good ol' boy Bill Stewart. Morgantown will be burning Saturday, but it could be Stewart in effigy.

10. Dr. Lou? Still hate it.