Picks of the Week

After consecutive winning weeks (against the spread), I'm taking some bigger chances this week. Let's see how I do when the stakes are a little bigger.

Alabama (-14.5) over Auburn
Nick Saban will have his Tide ready to play in the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa. The Bama fans have been stoked all week and Bryant-Denny Stadium will be bouncing Saturday. This will complete the great turnaround under Saban and propel Alabama into the SEC championship game on a real high.
Pick: Alabama 38, Auburn 9

Baylor (+21.5) over Texas Tech
This is a real leap. I know Tech will be out to make a statement after getting dismantled last week. But Baylor, despite being 4-7, has improved this season under Art Briles. The Bears will lose on the road in Lubbock, but will keep it closer than 21.5.
Pick: Texas Tech 45, Baylor 24

Oklahoma (-7) over Oklahoma State
With a potential spot in the Big 12 championship game, as well as the BCS title game, the Sooners are prepared and will cruise past Okie State. Sam Bradford could even make a last-second Heisman push with a big win here and a win in the conference title game. Mike Gundy has done a great job with the Cowboys, but they won't get the upset on this day.
Pick: Oklahoma 41, Oklahoma State 28

Missouri (-16) over Kansas
Three months ago this looked like a great season-finale for the Big 12 North. Now Missouri is trying to get to 10 victories as the Tigers prepare for either Texas or Oklahoma. KU has slipped a lot from last year's Orange Bowl victory over Virginia Tech to a 6-5 mark this season. An upset here would help erase some of the tough losses.
Pick: Missouri 49, Kansas 24

Upset of the Week
Oregon (+3) over Oregon State
This game is in Corvalis and the Beavers have a Rose Bowl berth on the line, but without running back Jacquizz Rodgers the Ducks will pull the upset and claim second place in the Pac-10. A victory would also allow Oregon to finish the second winning five of six (of course in six different uniforms).
Pick: Oregon 24, Oregon State 20

Last Week: 3-2
Season: 24-26

Picks of the Week

Now that's what I call a rebound.

A week after stinking up the joint and going 0-5 (thanks Colorado), I took some safer picks and went 5-0 against the spread. Sure I picked Auburn to beat Vanderbilt, but I said the Commodores would cover the 4.5-point spread and they did by winning 14-13. I also picked the upset of South Carolina over Ole Miss. Now for my fourth week of prognostication.

Oklahoma (-7) over Texas
Seriously, I really want to take the Longhorns. Their defense is athletic and aggressive, but for some reason I just think Sam Bradford and the Sooners will find a way to take advantage of that in the annual Red River Rivalry (formerly Shootout). Bradford is the most consistent quarterback I can ever remember. He's completed more than 70 percent of his passes this season for 18 touchdowns and just three picks. DeMarco Murray provides great balance with 431 rushing yards and five scores. So you think Bradford is accurate? Texas quarterback Colt McCoy has been even better, completing almost 80 percent of his passes for 1,280 yards and 16 TDs. This should be a great game.
Pick: Oklahoma 30, Texas 21

Vanderbilt (-1) over Mississippi State
Talk about no respect. One week after upsetting Auburn at home (which cost AU offensive coordinator Tony Franklin his job), Bobby Johnson's Commodores are being dissed as just a one-point favorite on the road. Vandy's defense is stout and the Bulldogs have the nation's most embarrassing BCS conference offense. It's time to recognize Vanderbilt as a legitimate SEC contender and expect more. I'm expecting 6-0 and bowl eligible after Saturday.
Pick: Vanderbilt 17, Mississippi State 6

Toledo (+17) over Michigan
I'm not calling the upset in Ann Arbor, but both teams are bad. The Rockets are improved defensively, but are still trying to find some consistency on offense. That's pretty much the situation for Michigan, especially with an offense that is still struggling to learn Rich Rod's spread attack. The Wolverine defense will win this close game, maybe with a score of its own. The Rockets, who used to compete for the Mid-American Conference championship every year, is having a down year under veteran coach Tom Amstutz.
Pick: Michigan 22, Toledo 12

North Carolina (-6.5) over Notre Dame It's possible I have watched these two teams as much as anyone (except West Virginia). North Carolina should be undefeated right now, but blew a game against Virginia Tech. Butch Davis has the Tar Heels playing well. A win here will solidify the progress UNC has made in Year 2 under Davis. While the Fighting Irish are improved this year, I'm still not sold that Jimmy Clausen and the offensive line is ready to win a big game.
Pick: North Carolina 30, Notre Dame 21

Upset of the Week
Wisconsin (+4.5) over Penn State
The spread on this game has been as high as six points. I don't think it will matter. The Nittany Lions have been playing inspired and almost mistake-free, but I don't believe the Badgers will lose three consecutive Big 10 games and Camp Randall is a brutal place for opponents. Joe Paterno will probably coach from the press box and PSU quarterback Daryll Clark will look more human against the Badgers relentless defense.
Pick: Wisconsin 20, Penn State 17

Last Week: 5-0
Season: 9-6

Picks of the Week

Wow! I stunk it up last week. After going 0-5 in my picks last week, I return to redeem myself and regain some self respect. Remember my picks also include the spread, so let's see how I can do this week.

Arizona (-18) over Washington
The 'Cats rebounded last week with a 31-10 victory over reeling UCLA. A victory here is critical for the future of Mike Stoops in Tucson. A win here gets 'Zona to 4-1 with winnable games still on the slate with Stanford, Washington State and Arizona State. Game should prove to be a showcase for two of the Pac-10's top receivers in UA's Mike Thomas and Washington's D'Andre Goodwin. However, October has been a rough month on Arizona under Stoops (3-14).
Pick: Arizona 42, Washington 18

Florida (-21) over Arkansas
Tim Tebow had a bad game against Ole Miss. Urban Meyer's performance was even worse. That doesn't happen in back-to-back weeks. Look for Tebow and Meyer to take out their frustrations on Bobby Petrino's boys. Watching Arkansas quarterback Casey Dick try to complete a pass is as painful as trying to say his name without snickering like a 10-year-old.
Pick: Florida 45, Arkansas 14

Missouri (-9.5) over Nebraska
Now we find out how high-flying the Tigers' offense really is. I think we'll find out that the Chase Daniel to Jeremy Maclin matchup is just too much for the rebuilding Cornhuskers. Bo Pelini's squad held its own against Virginia Tech last week (35-30 loss), but a home victory was more important than a moral victory. Expect Missouri to exploit Nebraska's weaknesses even more than VT.
Pick: Missouri 48, Nebraska 24

Vanderbilt (+4.5) over Auburn
I don't think Vandy will pull off the win, but the Commodores will hang with the Tigers. Vanderbilt leads the SEC East and has played well against decent competition. Wins against South Carolina and Ole Miss look OK right now. Auburn is the team I can't figure out. Played an outstanding game against LSU, but struggled with Southern Miss, Mississippi State and Tennessee—all three are teams on the rocks. Expect this to be close and potentially some strange play to sway momentum.
Pick: Auburn 7, Vanderbilt 6

Upset Special South Carolina (+3) over Mississippi
The Ol' Ball Coach has been off his game this year. I think Spurrier's starting to realize signing that long-term deal with South Carolina may not have been such a good idea (or for his legendary status). He's looking to impress the brass at Tennessee so he can work his way into the fold as a replacement for Phil Fulmer. Look for the Gamecocks to put together a good game plan and execute (sorry for stealing Herbstreit) against the Rebels, who are still in shock after winning in The Swamp last week.
Pick: South Carolina 20, Mississippi 17

Last week: 0-5
Season: 4-6